AppClover guest post: The 5 proven phases of app marketing research, part 3: Revenue projection

By Ioana Cailean on June 18, 2013 15 Comments

Here is the next installment of this 5-part guest series on app marketing research, written by Matthew Lutz, co-founder and COO of AppClover.

This is part 3 and is all about working out whether your app will make you the kind of money necessary for it to be a worthwhile business. If you wish, please go back and read part 1: Idea exploration and part 2: Market validation in case you missed them.

Phase 3:  Revenue Projection

During a podcast interview I did with Taylor Pierce, author of the brilliant book Appreneur, I asked him the seemingly complex question, “Is there any way to predict potential revenue for an app idea to determine whether or not it’s worth moving forward on?” and in reply, with a slight Cheshire grin on his face as if he were about to reveal the Holy Grail of insider secrets, Taylor said, “Yeah, just go into forums and ask.”

Wait a minute. That is the revenue projection tactic of this über-successful appreneur? It seemed too simple to be true. But just as Leonardo da Vinci so famously said, “Simplicity is the ultimate form of sophistication.”  If it works, why make it more complicated? This method means no software to learn, no scripts to run, no analytics to study, just some folks to talk to. Taylor then revealed to me his secrets of how exactly to do it, and now I’m going to pass them along to you (I don’t think he’ll mind).

Say for instance a competitor’s app, similar to the one you’re thinking about creating, is hanging around the Top 25 spot pretty consistently for a certain category. All you need to do is get onto a good development forum, such as if you’re an iOS developer, and ask around what people in the same category ranked in the Top 25 are making every day. If they come back and tell you they generate around 500 sales per day, for example, you know that your similar, new and improved app can reach 500 sales per day as well, if not more.

Also, while you’re in the forums, you could ask other categories what they are also achieving in sales, so you can compare different types of apps to inspire you for your next idea.

Now that your app idea officially has the green light, it’s time to pull the trigger on development. While the development process is underway though, it’s of course no time to relax, as there’s still more research that can be done in tandem.

The next part of this series will be out next week, and will be all about preparation for app store optimization – SEO for the app stores.

How do you carry out revenue projection for your app?